There are really only two different types of democratic elections throughout the history of democracy and humanity. Some, like the 1996 Taiwanese presidential election, 2005 Iraqi parliamentary elections, and even the 2018 Malaysian general election, can be game-changing. The others, however, are often described as “volatile”, “unpredictable”, and “unpopular”, recent examples include the 2020 US elections, and the Canadian and German federal elections late last year. In recent years, elections around the globe have been trending towards the latter, and the South Korean presidential election, which took place Wednesday, is no exception.
Background
Under the South Korean constitution, presidents are restricted to a single five-year term, meaning that the incumbent president Moon Jaein is barred from seeking re-election. Of the total 14 registered candidates, the ruling progressive Democratic Party of Korea (aka Minjoo Party) candidate Lee Jaemyung and his conservative rival Yoon Seokyeol of the PPP (People Power Party) are the two front-runners for the election.
Lee is the former governor of Gyeonggi province, South Korea’s most populous province surrounding capital Seoul, and was also mayor of Seongnam city before that. On the other hand, Yoon is the former prosecutor general appointed by outgoing president Moon, he is well-known for his involvement in the prosecution of the previously impeached president Park Geunhye. He had since resigned from the position following clashes with the Moon administration regarding persecution reforms.
The election campaign, which some may describe as “nasty”, was plagued with endless scandals and mudslinging, with both sides actively describing the other with insults such as “dictator”, “Hitler”, and “an empty can”. Dozens of lawsuits alleging libel and defamation have also been filed by both parties.
Lee was faced with allegations that he is connected to a corrupt real-estate development case in Seongnam city while he was mayor. At the same time, Yoon was accused of practicing shamanism and mysticism. Critics also compared Yoon to former US president Donald Trump due to his heavily controversial gaffes and inexperience in politics.
The spouses of both candidates aren’t immune either. Lee’s wife Kim Hyekyung was accused of power abuse while Yoon’s wife, Kim Keonhee came under fire for falsifying her resume.
A tight race
Two conflicting exit polls with results that were within the margin of error released after the polling stations closed at 7:30 PM KST (6:30 PM MYT) for voters in quarantine, which indicated that the election was too close to call. Voter turnout was high at 77.1%, albeit 0.1% lower than the previous election.
Early into the night, Lee was leading the ballot count, since early voting tends to favor progressives. But as the night progressed, the leading margins became narrower, and Yoon overtook Lee in the vote count at around 12:30 AM KST (11:30 PM MYT). Ultimately, Yoon, with the endorsement of centrist candidate Ahn Cheolsoo, won the closest presidential election in South Korean history with a margin of only 0.73%.
The election was special in many ways, as it has not only broken the historical pattern of electing the opposition candidate every two terms, but more importantly it has signaled two major political divisions within the country – the geographical east-west divide and the gender-generation divide. The southwestern provinces of South Jeolla, North Jeolla, and Gwangju city – home to a major democratization movement in the 1980s, voted overwhelmingly for Lee and the DPK, while the eastern provinces favoring Yoon and the PPP.
Moreover, exit polls showed a generational divide amongst South Koreans, middle-aged voters are more supportive of the governing DPK while people over 60 favoring the conservative PPP. The exit polls have also shown a significant gender divide for voters in their 20s – with men favoring Yoon and women favoring Lee.
What lies ahead
Yoon is set to be inaugurated as president two months later on May 10. The immediate challenge ahead for him is to unite a country that is deeply split, with those who either despise him or voted for him only to vote out the ruling party. However, since legislative and presidential elections are separate in South Korea, he will certainly have a hard time doing so as the DPK currently controls the majority seats in the national assembly, and will remain so until the next election in 2024.
Foreign policy
Yoon had criticized the DPK’s submissive stance on the US-China rivalry, China being the largest trading partner of South Korea. He had also vowed to bolster diplomatic ties with Washington, Tokyo, and other democratic nations.
Besides, Yoon is planning to deploy additional American THAAD anti-ballistic missile systems in order to deter North Korea. He is also seeking to establish and engage in a permanent three-way dialogue channel between both Koreas and the United States.
Economy
Yoon is a supporter of balanced budgets, lower trade deficits, market deregulation, and small government. He had pledged to scrap the Moon administration’s nuclear phase-out policy, and instead build more reactors in a bid to create more jobs while also reducing carbon emissions and foreign energy dependence. Yoon also had promised to create more housing, lower property taxes as well as capital gains taxes to tackle the soaring real estate prices in the Seoul capital region (Sudokwon).
COVID-19 pandemic
South Korea is currently facing its biggest wave of COVID-19 infections, with 1 in 10 people in the country were or are currently infected with the disease. It is also the country currently reporting the most new infections in the last week, according to the WHO. Yoon is likely to tackle the pandemic with a more tolerant and sustainable approach, i.e., ensuring access to healthcare and easing COVID-19 related restrictions.
Gender conflicts
During the election campaign, Yoon had called to abolish the Ministry of Gender and Equality and Family, accusing it of fomenting division between men and women. However, the fate of the ministry is still uncertain for now, as abolishing it would likely spark mass protests and disapproval throughout the country.